By K S Tomar
Historically, politicians have been grabbing power by following the Machiavellian principle of showing complete disrespect to means, morality, and values, which fits Nepal's Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Pachanda) who fell from grace recently after losing a trust vote in the parliament. A strong urge for power leading to unprincipled and unhealthy competition amongst the politicians could be the sole reason for constant turmoil and instability in the Himalayan Kingdom which witnessed 13 governments in the last 16 years.
While seeking a trust vote in the Nepal parliament, Prachanda faced the worst type of humiliating defeat as he got 63 votes (Rashtria Swatantra Party-21, Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist) -10 and his party-32) as against 194 votes of new coalition combination of Nepali Congress (89 MPs) and Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) (78 MPs) which also got support from other smaller parties like Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), Janata Samajwadi Party (Upendra faction) etc in the house of 275 where majority mark was 138 only.
K P Sharma Oli formed the new government after President Ram Chandra Poudel invited the political parties having the strength to form the government.
The new regime in Nepal, led by K P Sharma Oli, is likely to seek balanced relations with the United States. Oli's government could leverage US support for infrastructure development, healthcare, and education while maintaining Nepal's non-aligned foreign policy. Security cooperation, especially in counter-terrorism and disaster response, could be strengthened. However, balancing US interests with those of neighboring China will be crucial for Oli. Effective diplomacy and clear communication will be essential to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape.
The new coalition government of Oli and Sher Bahadur Deuba is bound to face multiple challenges which will be key to success otherwise its fallout could be midterm polls. Political observers feel that the fragile nature of the new government consisting of the communists (pro-China) and Nepali Congress (pro-India) having opposing ideologies could pose a major challenge to keep them in unison and amalgamated.
Second, the Oli and Deuba combine will be under compulsion to keep equidistance with India and China, which have geopolitical and strategic interests in the affairs of Nepal. Further, Oli’s previous stint as PM was marked by his extreme anti-India action of redrawing the map which had shown Indian territories including Lipulekh, Limpiyadhura, and Kalapani as part of Nepal. It had exasperated India which rejected this misadventure thereby terming it as baseless besides being an attempt to spoil ties.
Now, as the dominant partner in the coalition, the onus of checking this tendency will lie on Deuba to prevail upon Oli to come out of the anti-India mentality and protect age-old relations between the two nations. Next, communist regimes led by Prachanda, and currently Oli, gave clear indications about their commitment to China which will expect the new government to go ahead with the Belt-and-Road (BRI) initiative though it has been kept in abeyance despite the signing of the Memorandum Of Understanding between two countries on May 12, 2017.
Prachanda had reiterated Nepal’s commitment to expediting the BRI during his September 2023 visit to Beijing. At present, it will be an uphill task for Oli to stick to his predecessors’ resolve to toe China’s line about BRI as the Nepali congress is opposed to it hence chances of any progress seem to be remote.
Also, it will be a test of the new government to deal with India’s Agnipath scheme which is one of the major irritants so far. India launched the Agnipath scheme on June 15, 2022, which was extended to Nepal also but it is still in limbo in the Himalayan Kingdom owing to certain reservations.
Field reports suggest that there are unemployed youths who may be keen to join the army as Agniveers but two previous governments had dragged its feet and the third one may not be different. The Indian army had planned to recruit 40,000 Agniveers in 2022 and former army chief Manoj Pande had made it clear to withdraw the vacancies if the decision was not filled by the government but nothing has been done so far and there is every chance of rejection by the communists' government.
Nepal’s general elections were held in November 2022 but the Agnipath scheme is still hanging in fire as some retired generals in Kathmandu have opposed the scheme. As per the record, the scheme is regulated by the 1947 Tripartite Treaty on Recruitment between Britain, India, and Nepal. Nepal believes that it has been violated by the Agnipath scheme. At this juncture, China may allure Nepal to opt for the Gurkha recruitments in PLA which will unsettle the 1947 tripartite agreement which governs the intake of youths from Nepal in the Indian army.
As the Betrawati Treaty of 1792, signed between China and Nepal, there is a clause of the former helping to defend the latter against any external aggression that may become handy to the communist regime. But the new regime is unlikely to embark upon such misadventure as it will hit the interests of Nepali youths seeking entry into Indian army.
Nepal's border issues with India, including disputes over territories require a multifaceted approach. The new government might adopt a new strategy which includes engaging in high-level bilateral talks with Indian counterparts to discuss and resolve border disputes amicably. Strengthening the Nepal-India Joint Boundary Commission to expedite the resolution of boundary issues through technical and diplomatic means may yield positive results. Increasing security and surveillance along disputed border areas to prevent illegal activities and unauthorized incursions may be of utmost importance to both countries. Finally, an action plan must be formulated to build and improve the infrastructures in border areas to enhance accessibility and assert presence in disputed regions.
Analysts feel that by withdrawing support from Prachanda and joining hands with the Nepali Congress, Oli is aimed at establishing a more stable and cohesive government, leveraging a new alliance to secure his leadership and navigate the complex political landscape of Nepal. However, the survival of the coalition will depend solely on the mutual trust of partners, and implementation of a balanced diplomatic strategy, and refraining from offending two regional giants which had been lacking in the past.
(The writer is a political analyst having six-year stint in a foreign posting in Nepal)
