By K.S. Tomar
Notwithstanding the personal popularity of Prime minister Narender Modi, a lethal combination of four ingredients comprising of Vikas (development), Kamandal (social engineering), Susashan (clean administration), and a mandatory mild dose of Hindutva (religion) adopted by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh assembly polls did the trick and helped Yogi Adityanath government to neutralize the anti-Incumbency factor to emerge as victorious though with a slightly reduced number of seats.
BJP has completely dominated the 2022 assembly elections by winning Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Manipur and forming government in Goa though falling just short of a simple majority. This also lays a rock-hard foundation for 2024 parliamentary polls to ensure retention of the power at the center by Modi for the third time in a row.
The success of BJP in Uttar Pradesh, the Gateway to the crown in Delhi, has placed it in finals and all opposition parties will be constrained to create a joint front to face the ruling party at center against a highly motivated party cadre and ‘Charisma” of PM Modi. The Modi-Yogi duo can be credited for creating a pro-incumbency wave in UP and their efforts were supplemented by union minister, Amit Shah’s social engineering.
Women turn out and continuous support to BJP can be attributed to PM’s scheme like Ujjwala Yojana, toilets, and other projects like the cash transfer to each farmer’s family, even an idea of 21 crore members identified under ‘e-Shram’ scheme to provide special assistance, an effective delivery system of paying wages of MGNREGA, etc. also contributed in party’s victory.
Political observers say that Yogi has become an icon and RSS support makes him claimant to the No.2 position in BJP after Modi who will be 75 in 2026 which might pave his way to the top slot.
The tsunami of AAP in Punjab
Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had a massive win in Punjab, one of the most progressive states in India, which may strengthen and help it in retaining power in Delhi assembly elections. AAP, as a regional party, has won a second important border state which clears the deck to position itself as one of the contenders at the national level and the party may plan to project Arvind Kejriwal as an acceptable face of combined opposition to take on BJP in 2024 parliamentary polls. The spectacular victory in Punjab, a border state, could encourage Kejriwal to focus on Gujarat which is going for polls in November 2022.
Congress decimated
Congress party has been decimated in all five states and lost Punjab thereby squeezing it to Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in the entire country though it is still a coalition partner in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Jharkhand. Congress needs to take corrective steps on an urgent basis to prepare for the next battle which will be fought in Gujrat and Himachal by the end of this year.
In Punjab, the defeat of sitting chief minister, Charanjit Singh Channi, and state president, Navjot Singh Sidhu besides several senior leaders reflected that people disapproved of infighting; inept handling of Punjab parry affairs by the high command. Congress is in disarray in Uttarakhand also hence the party has lost badly to BJP and its chief ministerial candidate failed to save his seat. The indecisiveness of high command and demoralization of party cadres spoiled its chances in Goa and Manipur which will need urgent attention and rectification.
(Writer is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Shimla, India.)
