By Vipul Tamhane
In the global conservative camp, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and former US President Donald Trump are two prominent names that often recaps as a bromance and this came out quite apparently amid Trump's assassination attempt whilst campaigning in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13. PM Modi denounced the murder attempt as he heard the bid on Trump. He said: "Deeply Concerned by the attack on my friend, former President Donald Trump. Strongly condemn the incident. Violence has no place in politics and democracies. I wish him a speedy recovery. Our thoughts and prayers are with the family of the deceased, those injured, and the American People."
As the two democracies tilt towards conservative sentiments, the affinity in the leadership is evident. Modi shared a good rapport with Trump when he was the US President. In September 2019, the Indian PM had addressed the mega 'Howdy Modi' event in Houston, Texas. Trump had accompanied PM Modi for the massive diaspora event. A few months later, Trump came to India on a high profile visit. In February 2020, the 'Namaste Trump' event was held in Gujarat; and we cannot forget the legendary Modi-Trump Handshake at the G7 summit four years ago. In an interview with Indian TV in September 2022, Trump said,"we have been friends for a long time, from even before the last campaign in 2016 and then 2020. I have had a great relationship with India and with Prime Minister Modi, and I think he is a great guy and doing a terrific job, it's not an easy job he's got. We have known each other for a long time, good man". “India has never had a better friend than me” is what he claims. Certainly, there is a special bond between Trump and PM Modi.
Trump's assassination attempt has given him a clear lead over Biden for the November presidential elections, as experts expect, what they call “sympathy votes”. His re-election is seen as beneficial for India due to his chemistry with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his stance on Russia and China. India has had a special relationship with Russia going back to the war with Pakistan, but it has grown closer to the United States under President Trump is what the Republican sentiment seems to be. There will be more breakthroughs expected in the relations between the two nations if Trump ascends to the presidency, says John Gizzi, Chief Political Columnist and White House.
(Correspondent for Newsmax, to ET) Trump has been critical of the liberal Democrats who undid his policies and how he would restore America in terms of illegal immigration and boost the economy, which is the theme of Trumpism for his 2024 campaign. His opening remarks and recounting the near-tragic events of Saturday at Butler have moved the voters in his favor around the country.
Geopolitically, Trump's perspective on China is pretty open from his campaign speeches. He talks with reassurance to Taiwan and the Philippines, along with a warning to China. In addition to that he has mentioned Japan, South Korea, and the Pacific in general. The presidential candidate who has seen the office amidst geopolitical crisis before pledges to stand by allies who increasingly feel threatened by China. The Republican party's foreign policy towards India seems to be cordial as the campaigns progress. There is a special bond between Trump and PM Modi. In his book, 'The Strongman', Gideon Rackman makes comparisons between the two leaders stylistically and their reliance on the free market economy. The Trump administration will watch this whole tricky play out as always with PM Modi having Russian President Vladimir Putin on one side and Trump on the other.
There is no questioning the fact that Modi and Putin are close, as the former welcomed the latter on a state visit to New Delhi and this will continue and it may work to Donald Trump's advantage, come Trump 2.0. As the Republicans analyze the linear relationship between the leaders of the USA, India, and Russia, where Modi would stand as a mutual friend between Trump and Putin, any kind of problems that the United States has with Russia can be solved through back-channel diplomacy in which the meeting point can be New Delhi.
However, trade-wise, concerns exist that Trump’s anticipated presidency could pose challenges in trade and tariffs. America's shift from China to safer destinations benefits India, expecting more investment from American companies. However, Trump's stance against protectionism by India raises concerns about India-US trade ties.
Trump criticized India's lopsided trade relationship with Harley-Davidson motorcycles, citing high taxes on American products. Last year, he raised the issue of reciprocal tax if elected to power again, threatening to impose such taxes on American products. Trump, during his first term as US president, criticized India as a "tariff king" and terminated India's preferential market access to the US in May 2019. He raised import duties on Indian steel and aluminum products, which India also raised on several American products. Trump criticized India's high tax rates and called for a matching tax to help the US compete with India.
He compared India's high tariffs to Harley-Davidson and questioned why the US could compete with India's high tariffs. Trump once said “The tariff is so high (in India) that nobody wants it (trade). But what they (India) want us to do is, they want us (USA) to go over and build a plant, and then you have no tariff," he said, adding "if India is charging us, so call it retribution, we charge them too".
Bilateral trade between India and the US reached $118.28 billion in 2023-24, with a 1.32 per cent drop in exports to the US and a 20 per cent drop in imports. Washington was India's top trading partner during 2021-22 and 2022-23, but China emerged as India's largest trading partner in 2023-24 with $118.4 billion worth of trade.
The Modi government and Biden administration are considering a significant trade and commerce relationship, excluding a mini trade deal or free trade agreement. The Trump administration revoked the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) from India, which permits eligible developing countries to export duty-free goods to the US. New Delhi's priority is not revoking the GSP. The GSP permits developing countries to export duty-free goods to the US. India and the US resolved their last trade dispute at the WTO in September, and six disputes were resolved during PM Modi's state visit to the US, where India agreed to reduce tariffs on certain US products.
India introduced a licensing system for imports in August last year, requiring companies like Apple, Dell, and HP to obtain licenses for all shipments of imported computer hardware. This raised concerns about slowing sales. The India-US Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) aims to address barriers to bilateral strategic trade, technology, and industrial cooperation. The Indian government rolled back the decision in October, reportedly after US pressure. India also sought easier visas for traders and investors, participation in Washington's public procurement, and permanent renewal of H-1B visas in India.
India, a significant market for American companies, is also benefiting from the US as it seeks investment and develops indigenous manufacturing. Despite negotiating a trade deal during Trump's first term, the 2020 visit was unsuccessful due to the election of Biden. The return of Trump could potentially revive negotiations, potentially leading to the US leaving the WTO and negotiating with countries individually. This could potentially benefit both countries as they seek to build their economies and diversify their trade relations.
The Modi-Trump relationship reflects the broader geopolitical alignment of the two democracies. Trump's potential re-election may bolster India-US ties, especially in countering China. However, concerns over trade policies persist. As both nations navigate their evolving partnership, a balance between strategic cooperation and economic interests will be crucial. The Modi government must continue leveraging diplomatic channels to mitigate trade tensions while fostering technological and industrial cooperation. The future of India-U.S. relations under a potential Trump 2.0 presidency will hinge on addressing these multifaceted challenges and opportunities.
(The writer is a counter‐terrorism expert and a visiting faculty with Pune University (SPPU) at the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies)
