By K S Tomar
The resurgence of pro-monarchy forces in Nepal signals a significant shift in the country’s political landscape. The growing disillusionment with the current democratic setup, coupled with economic distress, corruption, and political instability, has revived demands for the restoration of the monarchy. The Communist-led government, primarily under KP Sharma Oli’s leadership, faces a formidable challenge in countering this trend. Additionally, the role of external players, particularly China, in influencing these developments cannot be ignored. India, as Nepal’s closest neighbor with deep-rooted historical and cultural ties, must carefully calibrate its response to safeguard its strategic interests.
Former King Gyanendra’s resurgence
Amidst the political turbulence, former King Gyanendra Shah is trying to fish in troubled waters. He has re-emerged, advocating for "national unity" while subtly alluding to a monarchical revival — a sentiment resonating with a disillusioned populace. The pressing question remains: Is this merely a fleeting political upheaval, or the dawn of a larger movement that may upset the apple cart of the coalition government headed by communists?
Gyanendra, backed by the royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), has launched a bold campaign to reclaim relevance. His recent high-profile return to Kathmandu has ignited political tensions, drawing thousands of supporters who see the monarchy as a stabilizing force amid governance failures. The RPP has intensified its demand for a referendum on the monarchy’s restoration, leveraging public dissatisfaction with the ruling communist government.
Gyanendra’s increasing public engagements, temple visits, and meetings with influential religious leaders have galvanized Hindu nationalist sentiment, further strengthening his position. His speeches criticizing political corruption and advocating for a Hindu state have resonated with many, particularly in rural areas. The royalist movement, once considered a fringe element, is now gaining momentum, challenging the communist-led government’s authority.
Factors driving the pro-monarchy resurgence
- Disillusionment with political instability: Nepal has witnessed frequent changes in government since the abolition of the monarchy in 2008, with over a dozen prime ministers in the past 16 years. The inability of political parties, including the Communist factions and the Nepali Congress, to provide stable governance has fueled nostalgia for the monarchy.
- Corruption and governance failures: Rampant corruption, nepotism, and inefficiency have led to a governance crisis, pushing many citizens to question the effectiveness of the republic model. The erosion of public trust in democratic institutions has made the monarchy appear as a more stable alternative.
- Economic distress: The economic downturn, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and declining remittances, has increased frustration among the youth and business communities. Many argue that the monarchy-era policies were more conducive to economic stability compared to the present scenario.
- Rise of Hindu nationalism: Nepal was officially a Hindu kingdom before 2008, and a growing section of the population, backed by Hindu nationalist groups, is advocating for the restoration of the monarchy along with Nepal’s status as a Hindu state. The RPP and other pro-monarchy groups have gained traction by leveraging religious sentiments.
Weakness of the republican forces: The failure of democratic forces to unite against monarchy supporters has created a vacuum, allowing pro-royalist voices to grow stronger. Communist parties, particularly the CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist Centre, have been plagued by internal conflicts, reducing their ability to counter royalist narratives effectively.
The Communist-led government’s response
The KP Sharma Oli-led government and other left-wing factions have adopted multiple approaches to curb the rise of monarchist sentiments: Crackdowns on pro-monarchy protests and restrictions on royalist leaders have been implemented to prevent mass mobilization. The government has used legal means to ban certain royalist organizations, accusing them of attempting to destabilize the republic. To counter dissatisfaction, the government has focused on improving service delivery, increasing foreign investment, and launching economic stimulus packages. Infrastructure projects, including those under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), are being expedited to showcase progress.
Further, the ruling coalition has pushed back against calls for making Nepal a Hindu state again, emphasizing the benefits of a secular democratic system. Coordination with civil society and international allies has been strengthened to uphold Nepal’s secular constitution. The government has sought to win over young voters by promoting job creation programs and entrepreneurship initiatives. Communist leaders have engaged intellectuals and media houses to counter pro-monarchy narratives with historical and political discourse.
China’s role in pro-monarchy movements
China has been a key player in Nepal’s political affairs, primarily supporting communist forces to maintain stability favorable to Beijing. However, its stance on monarchy restoration remains ambiguous. While China officially supports Nepal’s republican system, some analysts suggest that Beijing may be indirectly fostering instability to prevent Nepal from aligning too closely with India and Western democracies. Reports indicate that certain Chinese-backed groups have sympathized with pro-monarchy factions to counterbalance India’s influence in Nepalese politics.
China has increased its economic investments in Nepal, particularly in infrastructure and energy projects, ensuring that any political transition, including a potential monarchy restoration, does not threaten its strategic foothold. Some royalist groups have expressed support for enhanced Nepal-China cooperation, which aligns with China’s long-term interests.
Beijing has actively mediated disputes between Nepal’s communist factions, particularly between KP Oli’s CPN-UML and the Maoist Centre led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda). A strong and united communist front in Nepal serves China’s interest in preventing monarchy restoration, which could tilt Nepal’s geopolitical orientation.
India’s strategic role
As Nepal’s historical ally and largest trading partner, India must approach the monarchy debate with caution. New Delhi’s engagement should focus on maintaining Nepal’s democratic framework while addressing the concerns driving the monarchy’s resurgence.
India should engage not only with the ruling communist parties but also with pro-monarchy groups, ensuring that its strategic interests remain secure regardless of Nepal’s internal shifts. A balanced approach will prevent anti-India sentiment from growing within royalist factions.
India should strengthen economic partnerships, providing alternatives to China’s investments to ensure Nepal’s economic stability under the republican framework. Increased financial aid and trade incentives could help reduce economic grievances that fuel pro-monarchy sentiments.
Given the deep-rooted religious and cultural ties between India and Nepal, New Delhi can play a subtle role in shaping Nepal’s secular discourse while respecting its internal sovereignty. Soft power initiatives, such as tourism and religious diplomacy, can help maintain India’s influence in Nepalese society. India should work closely with Nepal’s political leadership to prevent external forces from destabilizing the region. A stable Nepal is crucial for India’s security, especially in curbing cross-border terrorism and illegal activities.
The rise of pro-monarchy forces in Nepal is a manifestation of the country’s governance failures, economic struggles, and religious aspirations. The communist-led government faces a dual challenge: Addressing public discontent while preventing external influences from exacerbating political instability.
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(The writer has covered Nepal for a premier national English daily for six years during the transition to democracy.)
The views expressed are not necessarily those of The South Asian Times
