The US president's direct, deal-making style could open new avenues for conflict resolution in high-stakes regions.
By Vipul Tamhane
As the world grapples with ongoing geopolitical conflicts, former US President Donald Trump has the potential to re-enter the global stage with a strategy focused on peace negotiations and win a Nobel Peace Prize in the process. Barack Obama's 2009 Nobel Peace Prize faced criticism for being premature, as many felt it contradicted his administration's military actions and limited achievements at that time.
Wherein, Trump’s approach may leverage economic incentives and territorial concessions to resolve disputes in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East. By reducing tensions with Russia, fostering dialogue between Israel and Palestine, and addressing global energy prices, Trump could position himself as a broker for peace while shaping international relations to align with US interests.
Potential geopolitical deals by Trump
>> Ukraine conflict resolution
The war in Ukraine remains one of the most urgent global crises, demanding diplomatic solutions to end the conflict. Former US President Donald Trump could adopt a strategy focused on direct negotiations with Russia, leveraging his unconventional approach to diplomacy to broker a ceasefire. His personal engagement with Russian leadership might yield unexpected but effective results in deescalating tensions.
Beyond an immediate ceasefire, a long-term peace framework would require carefully balanced territorial concessions that uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty while addressing Russia’s security concerns. Additionally, strengthening NATO’s defense coordination could ensure a united front against future aggression. By urging European allies to increase their defense spending and support for Ukraine, Trump could shift financial responsibility away from the U.S. while reinforcing Western resilience.
A strategic blend of diplomacy, security assurances, and military preparedness may offer a viable path toward stability, potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape and securing peace in Eastern Europe.
>> Middle East peace initiatives
Trump’s success with the Abraham Accords showcased his ability to broker agreements between long-standing adversaries. A renewed Middle East peace initiative under his leadership could center on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict while reinforcing regional alliances. The analysts also observe that Jared Kushner’s three-year involvement in the Middle East Peace plan has yet to bear any fruit. Facilitating a two-state solution would be a challenging yet vital objective.
Trump could advocate for negotiations that address key issues such as borders, security, and Jerusalem’s status, providing a structured pathway to lasting peace. Economic cooperation could serve as a powerful catalyst, with investments in infrastructure and development fostering collaboration between Israelis and Palestinians, reducing tensions through shared economic interests.
Besides, strengthening ties with Arab nations could create a broader coalition for regional stability.
Engaging influential players like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt in peace discussions could amplify diplomatic efforts, ensuring a more unified approach to conflict resolution. Through strategic negotiations and economic incentives, Trump could work toward a more stable and cooperative Middle East.
>> North Korea diplomacy
North Korea’s nuclear ambitions remain a significant challenge to global stability. Trump’s past engagements with Kim Jong-un established a foundation for renewed diplomatic efforts. Reviving denuclearization talks could be a key priority, with economic aid and security assurances serving as potential incentives for North Korea to disarm. A successful deal would require strict verification measures to ensure compliance.
Not to forget, China’s role in maintaining regional stability would be crucial. By leveraging diplomatic and economic channels, Trump could encourage Beijing to enforce sanctions and support negotiations, fostering a more cooperative approach to managing North Korea’s nuclear threat and ensuring lasting peace.
>> Other peace efforts
Donald Trump could leverage his business relationships and credibility to facilitate a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, addressing long-standing tensions. Also, orchestrating a peaceful transition of power in Venezuela, particularly by removing Nicolas Maduro, would further enhance his reputation as a peace broker on the global stage.
Trade agreements as peace tools
Economic interdependence can serve as a strong deterrent to conflict, and Trump could leverage trade agreements to promote global stability. By structuring deals that encourage peaceful relations, particularly with rivals like China, economic cooperation could take precedence over military tensions. Prioritizing fair trade practices would strengthen ties while reducing geopolitical risks.
Pragmatically, engaging with allies and emerging economies through strategic trade partnerships could foster a more interconnected global economy. When nations benefit from mutual prosperity, the incentives for conflict diminish. Through diplomatic trade efforts, Trump could create a framework where economic collaboration becomes a cornerstone of international stability.
Global energy cooperation
Energy security plays a crucial role in global stability, often fueling international conflicts. Trump’s strategy could focus on stabilizing energy markets and reducing reliance on geopolitical adversaries. By engaging with major energy-producing nations and advocating for increased production, he could help manage energy prices and mitigate conflicts driven by resource scarcity.
Likewise, promoting renewable energy partnerships could reduce global dependence on fossil fuels, lowering tensions in oil-rich regions. Investing in sustainable energy solutions would not only enhance long-term security but also foster economic growth, making energy cooperation a key pillar of international diplomacy and conflict prevention.
Strengthening international institutions
Despite his past criticisms of international institutions, Trump could play a role in reforming and strengthening them to better support global peace efforts. By reaffirming US commitments to organizations like the United Nations and NATO, he could enhance their capacity to mediate conflicts and maintain stability. Postulating, advocating for institutional reforms could make these organizations more efficient and responsive to modern geopolitical challenges. Strengthening their peacekeeping and conflict resolution capabilities would improve global security while ensuring that international bodies remain effective in addressing emerging threats and fostering long-term diplomatic solutions to global crises.
Nobel Peace Prize for Trump, too early to decide?
Donald Trump's potential to foster a more peaceful global environment through strategic negotiations and economic incentives presents a compelling narrative. His direct, deal-making style could open new avenues for conflict resolution in high-stakes regions. By leveraging trade agreements, energy policies, and diplomatic channels, Trump may work towards reducing global tensions and enhancing international stability.
However, the path to achieving these goals is fraught with challenges viz. Palestinians angrily reject Trump's Mideast peace plan, with Mahmoud Abbas saying “A Thousand 'no's to the Trump plan". Also, skepticism regarding his sincerity and effectiveness persists, especially in light of his controversial policies and military engagements during his previous presidency. The current geopolitical landscape, marked by rising tensions and domestic political opposition, further complicates his ability to enact meaningful change.
By prioritizing stability, Trump can enhance the credibility of American diplomacy, ensuring that allies and the others under negotiations feel secure in their commitments. Speculation about Trump's candidacy for a Nobel Peace Prize hinges on his success in brokering peace in ongoing conflicts. His previous diplomatic achievements, such as the Abraham Accords, lend credibility to this possibility. Yet, the gap between his promises and actual outcomes could significantly shape perceptions of his potential for the prestigious award. As the world watches, Trump's role in shaping the future of global peace remains an intriguing prospect, one that could redefine his legacy on the international stage.
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(The writer is a counter-terrorism expert and a visiting faculty with Pune University (SPPU) at the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. He is also the founder & editor-in-chief at Diplomacy Direct, a public interest think-tank. He can be contacted at [email protected])
