India in the emergent bipolar world order

American-led sanctions have driven Russia into China’s arms

By Maj Gen Sudhakar Jee, VSM

Russia began its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, to address its long-pending and perceived claim of ‘existential security concerns’. The expansive financial sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and NATO have turned the rouble into rubble but the war-led disruptions to the global supply chain have sent the prices of several key commodities soaring: from wheat and corn, to metals including nickel and aluminum, and most crucially, crude oil and gas.

Russia supplies Europe about 40 percent of its gas requirement, roughly a quarter of its oil and almost half its coal needs, and an embargo on energy supplies from Russia could send already high electric costs in the countries comprising the eurozone skyrocketing.

American-led sanctions have driven Russia into China’s arms. It has not only set the stage for a new Cold War that could last a few generations but also left India in a dangerously tight spot. Viewed from a global perspective, the above interpretation coupled with China’s claim that the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy is aiming to create “an Indo-Pacific version of NATO” lend the potential threat against India highly ominous.

For millennia, India’s northern border was Tibet and Turkestan for the Aksai Chin Area, and not China. The un-delineated and un-demarcated borders between the two Asian giants continue to elude peace and cast a deepening shadow over relations between the two nations, epitomized by the border war of 1962, scars of which are yet to heal, at least on the Indian side.

Having launched military reforms in 2015 – with an ambition to achieve mechanization and information edge by 2020; military modernization by 2035 and world-class military by 2049, Xi Jinping’s dream to undo the ‘Century of Humiliation’ by restoring China’s rightful place of being at the center of the earth, through multiple means by 2049, or even earlier, by economic, military, political and strategic dominance continues to remain potent and real.

Despite the ongoing pandemic, its own share of internal domestic turmoil, and the economic slowdown, it still continues to dominate in the western Pacific Ocean and expand into the Indian Ocean asserting its military muscle and economic might and laying illegal claims to territories both on the continental and maritime domains.

Application of its ‘Three warfare strategy’ to subdue the enemy in addition to ‘debt trap’, ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’ and ‘military coercion’ continue to remain central in its ‘unrestricted warfare’, a form of ‘hybrid warfare’ or the ‘grey-zone battle’. The same strategy was successfully applied by Russians in the annexation of Crimea in 2014 as well as in the ongoing ‘Ukrainian conflict.’

Thus the Chinese foreign policy, growing economic and military power expose China’s long-range hegemonic ambitions indicating that its neighboring countries will always remain in a state of protracted conflict to assert their political and economic hegemony. The same has been further empowered by the new ‘Land Border Laws’ brought into force by China with effect from January 01, 2022, in response to India’s abrogation of Article 370 on August 05, 2019, and continue to cast India’s vulnerability to Chinese enhanced threats along India’s northern border in future.

Chairing a Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting on March 13, 2022, the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi reviewed India’s security preparedness in the backdrop of the ongoing military confrontation with China in Eastern Ladakh, especially since Galwan incident in 2020. This was preceded by incidents in Doklam (2017), Burtse (2015), Demchock (2014-15), Chumar (2014) Depsang (2013), Sumdorong-chu (1986-87) stand-offs, and the Nathula-Chola skirmish (1967) to name a few. PM Modi has stressed the need for self-reliance in the defense sector with the infusion of cutting-edge technologies in the said meeting.

The Indian Army has also been working to address the threat to the strategically – vulnerable Siliguri corridor, the narrow strip of land that connects the northeast with the rest of India, which also came into focus during the 73-day face-off at Doklam near the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction in 2017.

It may be recalled that the Indian troops had then blocked the People’s Liberation Army’s attempt to extend its motorable track towards the Jampheri Ridge, which overlooks the Siliguri Corridor. The exercise was conducted on March 04, 2022, with a major ‘airborne insertion and rapid response’ in the Siliguri Corridor. It was also a strategic signal to China that the Indian Army remains focused on the challenges along LAC amidst the continuing 22-month long military confrontation in eastern Ladakh.

The Ukraine situation has to be seen in the context of similar attempts that could be made by the PLA along our contested northern borders.

US sanctions on Russia, as has been widely noted, are likely to have serious implications for India’s defense supplies. With over 90 percent of the Indian Army’s 3000-plus main battle tanks being Russian T-72 and T-90s, the advanced talks to procure another 464 Russian T-90 MS tanks having gone ahead, a large portion of India’s air force fighter squadrons comprising Russian aircraft like 272 Su-30 MKI, MIG-29 and Mig-21 and Indian Navy with a Russian aircraft carrier (INS Vikramaditya) and nine Russian diesel-electric submarines among other platforms necessitate periodic upgrades, maintenance, spare parts, and ancillary support. This entire supply chain will become vulnerable to interruptions under the new sanctions regime.

However, India may leverage the consistent pro-Russian stance in the UN in the ongoing Ukraine conflict to keep China off our back.

With Russian leadership being the US’s primary targets, Russia getting closer to China, and even Pakistan squeezing in, India’s need on finding alternatives of assured and committed import substitution assumes importance until the indigenization takes off in earnest and becomes self-sustaining. The well-thought ‘Make in India’ defense plan will require the focus, synergy, and mission-oriented approach to bear early fruits.

(Maj Gen (Rtd.) Sudhakar Jee, VSM is a former colonel of the Mahar Regiment. He has commanded troops in varied terrain, climate, and conflict zones. Currently, he is pursuing a doctoral thesis on the India-China border dispute, and delivers talks on the ‘ Regional Security Perspective of India’.)

Images courtesy of (Image Courtesy: History Extra), (Image Courtesy: Wikipedia) and Pro

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