Putin visiting India: Is it strategic balancing?

By Major General S.B. Asthana

With Russia’s growing dependency on China due to sanctions from West and India’s tilt towards the US with inclusion in Quad, the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to India on December 6, appears to be viewed differently by different world players.

Even in domestic debates, the public anger due to Chinese intrusion in Ladakh and the growing partnership of Russia and China indicates that the visit is sensitive in the context of international geopolitical scenario; hence will require a delicate strategic balancing including the text of joint statement, if issued at the end of the visit.

India remains heavily dependent on Russian technology, maintenance, procurement of hardware, and spares. For many decades Russians have been collaborating with India in its indigenous manufacturing programs and were amenable to transfer of technology, which India was finding difficult to get from others.

The impending visit, besides deal to commence indigenous manufacturing of AK 203 Kalashnikov rifles, may see some forward movement in collaboration in manufacturing, including twin-engine helicopters to replace Cheetah and Chetak, up-gradation of inventory of MIG-29 and Sukhoi aircraft.

There are also speculations of approximately ten agreements to be signed between the two countries, which could include the reciprocal exchange of logistics agreements. While the US may be amenable to a waiver on CAATSA for S-400, in view of the common China challenge, but further deals may create some new friction points in strengthening Indo-US relations.

In strategic context, Russia continues to be a favorable P5 member in UN and continues to support India in various multilateral organizations like the UN, SCO, BRICS on crucial issues.

While its nearness to China, its discomfort with Indian embrace to Quad, hardware sale to Pakistan, forces some of the opinion-makers in India to suggest divorcing Russia in favor of US, but such opinions are marred by impracticality, ignorance of Indian hardware dependency on Russia and its track record of reliability of its partnership with India.

In its revised Military Strategy document Russia continues to name India as its partner along with China, and has not delayed/defaulted on any hardware support to India, even during standoff with China.

The much-publicized Sino-Russian embrace by Chinese media and Russian acceptance to go along has been due to economic compulsions due to increasing sanctions from the West. An expansionist, aggressive China seeking Sino-centric world order does suit Russia as well, which is looking for multilateral world order.

Chinese BRI has already sidelined the Eurasian dream, its technological theft like alleged hypersonic technology proliferation and increasing border claims in the previously settled border with Tajikistan are not to Russian liking. Russia has made no commitment to back China’s misadventure in South China Sea/Himalayas and China has also not made any commitment on Ukraine borders.

It is, however, impractical to expect Russia to criticize China or Pakistan or India to discuss Ukraine issue during this visit, due to peculiar geopolitical equations.

Image courtesy of (Photo: latestly.com)

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