QUAD: India, US, and the Indo Pacific

By KS Tomar

Piqued over China’s aggressive expansion policy and its’ ambition to emerge as ‘Super Power’, President Joe Biden has accelerated his efforts to evolve a strategy and action plan to checkmate the Dragon. He will travel to Tokyo to participate in the quad meeting of the other three members comprising of Japan, India, and Australia which might be held in May later this year.

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue(QSD) of the Quad, has got a wide-ranging agenda on its plate concerning the members including resolving issues in Asia-pacific primarily Chinese aggression, exchanging the views on global problems emanating from technologies, humanitarian assistance, cyber security, maritime safekeeping, disaster relief to needy nations, climate change, creating pressure to contain aggressor, etc.

Alongside, the Quad is also likely to review the progress made on an earlier pledge to supply a billion COVID-19 vaccine doses to Southeast Asia by the end of 2022. The four world leaders had also announced their intention during the previous meeting on Sept 24, 2021, held in Washington to conduct a joint pandemic-preparedness tabletop or exercise in 2022. Biden had started an offensive against China in March 2021 when he organized the virtual meeting of Quad.

Quad foreign ministers’ in Melbourne

Prior to the Quad meeting, foreign ministers of four nations met in Melbourne, Australia, and vowed to work vigorously to achieve the grouping’s shared vision of an inclusive Indo-Pacific, free, open, and collectively deal with common threats such as terrorism prevalent in Asia.

Australia’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Marise Payne targeted China and Russia’s “no limits” partnership which had been unveiled earlier this month thereby signaling bigger ambition. However, the ministers also discussed the looming crisis in Ukraine and Antony Blinken described Russia’s military threats as a challenge to the rules-based order and said that it did matter immensely to the Quad even though it was “half a world away”.

However, India’s External Affairs Minister, Dr. S Jaishankar took an independent stand as compared to his Quad counterparts over the threat of a Russian invasion in Ukraine which is in consonance with the ages-old ties between the two countries. Jaishankar made it clear that India wants Quad to focus on cooperation and collaboration rather than confrontation.

India’s position was conventional and not unsurprising. It preserves a strong relationship with Russia which provided vital support to India during the Cold War. Moscow has clinched several billion US dollars defense deals and sells large quantities of military equipment to New Delhi. It was witnessed during a recent Security Council debate over Russia’s aggression that India called for peaceful dialogue and declined to criticize Moscow, simply reiterating that the “legitimate security interests” of all countries should be recognized. It is also a fact that Russia did stand solidly behind India on several occasions in the past including Afghanistan, Jammu and Kashmir, etc.

China rejects the idea of Quad

China has unfailingly denounced the Quad as a Cold War construct and a clique “targeting other countries.” Interestingly, Dragon is well aware of Biden’s initiative and its potential to hit against it hence it has rejected the idea of Quad by terming it as “Anti-China Grouping”. But  China is definitely upset over Biden’s continued policy to open other fronts like NATO, AUKUS, a purpose-built alliance between the US, UK, and Australia. As per the future action plan, three countries have agreed to share intelligence, quantum technology, and cruise missile technology. India will watch AUKUS from the sidelines, for now as the new grouping does not contradict the calculated strategy of Quad to counter China which has already created problems on the Line of Control.

China is the target of Quad, but it is not a foe of any country. Therefore, the security mechanism of Quad will not function at an extreme scale like the confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union. Quad can hardly function as a true alliance and will not have any real impact on China,” experts say.

US keen to checkmate the dragon  

It may be recalled that Biden had convened the Quad’s inaugural summit in March 2020 over videoconference and the group unveiled a plan with a vision to see American vaccines manufactured in India, financed by Japan and distributed by Australia across South and Southeast Asia. It had visualized a vast region where China and the America-led bloc are competing to win citizens of related and needy nations.

Unfortunately, the entire plan was derailed by a devastating coronavirus wave that crippled India and brought a halt to vaccine exports. Indian-made vaccines may be resumed soon with a target of a billion Indian-made doses that might be distributed globally by late 2022. At the same time, none can deny the fact that Japan has also been instrumental in strengthening the Quad in 2021, thereby earning Washington’s appreciation and focus has been on bolstering ties with India and Australia.

The idea of Quad

The Quad, which is also described as Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is an informal strategic forum for the four nations. It was formed in 2007 and it was on hiatus for nearly a decade after Australia’s then-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd withdrew Australia in 2008. The group was resuscitated in late 2017 as the Trump administration ramped up the confrontation with Beijing.

The cooperation between these four democracies began with their joint response to the Tsunami of 2004. Analysts say that the In-person meeting of Quad leaders reflects the return of normalcy which may give a big signal to the world about greater security and confidence when geopolitical issues may be discussed. Secondly, China’s efforts of intimidating neighbors may be checked by putting a brake on the actions which are predatory, rapacious trade in other realms and dominions.

Melbourne, and in later Tokyo the meetings are the first sign of a return to normal, and more face-to-face meetings might be held in the future also. One of the benefits of such a meeting is to ensure greater security besides creating confidence when geopolitical issues may be discussed.

Experts believe that some of the steps that China had taken across the board in terms of intimidating neighbors may prove as predatory, rapacious trade in other realms, dominions that do not augur for regional security. Nuclear containment is an issue of particular urgency for Japan – the only nation to suffer nuclear attacks – and for Japan PM Kishida, who hails from Hiroshima. For the US, India, Japan, and Australia, the objective is simple: resolving the issues in Asia-Pacific, mainly counterbalancing the Chinese aggression.

In the final assessment, Biden’s strategy may work for the benefit of other Quad leaders who are bound to exchange views on global issues. But China views this as an anti-China grouping which may not matter to these nations.

(KS Tomar is a senior political analyst based in Shimla, India. He had been Senior Editor with Hindustan Times. He is a former chairman of the Himachal Pradesh Public Service Commission.) Take his mug shot with profile in a box

 

Images courtesy of (Image Courtesy: The New Indian Express) and provided

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