Washington: A fortnight before the November 3 election, Biden campaign manager Jennifer O’Malley Dillon was urging supporters to remain active and engaged, saying in a memo, “We need to campaign like we’re trailing.”
“We cannot become complacent because the very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race, and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire,” she wrote in the memo.
It is not just the fear of 2016 repeat when pollsters predicted Hillary Clinton to beat Donald Trump till the election day. Polls have been tightening in the last few days in President Trump’s favor. At this point, Joe Biden leads him by 4 points in the 12 battleground states as per RealClearPolitics poll average.
Even if that looks safe for the Biden campaign, there’s one pollster going against the tide. Trafalgar Group remains steadfast about a slim Trump lead in at least 3 key battlegrounds: Michigan, Florida and Arizona. In 2016, when the industry consensus showed the race tightening in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trafalgar Group showed Trump with the lead and got it right.
Trafalgar’s senior strategist Robert Cahaly says they do surveys differently from the usual 25 question list that’s too long for most people. Trafalgar keeps it between 7-9 questions, so respondents can answer quickly. “I’ve got to get past what you want to say in public and get to what you really feel, because what’s in your heart is going to be what’s on that ballot,” Cahaly said
