In his third term, Modi's foreign policy goals will focus on securing India’s permanent membership in the UN Security Council (UNSC), forming strategic alliances, effectively addressing the China challenge, revitalizing ties with neighboring countries, and playing a pivotal role in world politics, say experts
New York: As the decks get cleared for the BJP-led NDA to form the government, the Asia Society Policy Institute experts said that the new government will further deepen the India-US strategic partnership.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan is scheduled to visit India to engage with the new government in New Delhi as PM Modi is set to take oath as the Prime Minister for a record third consecutive term.
Sullivan's visit was discussed when US President Joe Biden spoke to Prime Minister Modi on Wednesday to congratulate him on his re-election.
"President Joseph Biden Jr spoke with Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India to congratulate him and the National Democratic Alliance on their historic victory in India's general election," the White House said in a statement.
The two leaders stressed their commitment to strengthening the US-India Comprehensive and Global Strategic Partnership and to advancing their common vision of a free, open and prosperous India-Pacific region, the White House added.
According to Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute, we can expect the new government to deepen the India-US strategic partnership.
“Some frictions aside, the two countries have shared concerns over regional stability and are overseeing a burgeoning defense cooperation, we can expect a more assertive India aligning closely with US interests in the Indo-Pacific and expanding tech cooperation,” said Aamer.
While China has already shared some intent of expanding efforts to bring the Sino-Indian relations back on track, India is likely to maintain its stance on China, said Aamer.
The ongoing border tensions and economic competition will see India bolstering its military capabilities and seeking stronger alliances to counterbalance China's influence.
The new government will likely prioritize a 'Neighborhood First' policy with a pragmatic twist, enhancing connectivity and economic ties while maintaining a cautious eye on regional security dynamics.
It is in India's interest to promote holistic regional cooperation where possible, especially on shared challenges of climate change, said Aamer. "Expect the new government to focus heavily on the economy and India's economic diplomacy, focusing on expanding trade ties, attracting foreign investment, and asserting India's role as a key player in global supply chains, particularly in sectors like technology and pharmaceuticals”.
"As global geopolitics shift, India will continue to navigate its path by balancing relations with major powers, ensuring its sovereignty and regional influence remain uncompromised,” Aamer noted.
Rishi Gupta, Assistant Director, Asia Society Policy Institute in New Delhi said that the BJP-led NDA government has promised to make India the third-largest economy by 2017, which will not be difficult, considering the current GDP growth rate of 8.5 per cent.
“In his third term, Modi's foreign policy goals will focus on securing India’s permanent membership in the UN Security Council (UNSC), forming strategic alliances, effectively addressing the China challenge, revitalizing ties with neighboring countries, and playing a pivotal role in world politics,” Gupta emphasised.
Modi 3.0 may usher in comprehensive economic reforms aligned with the aspirations of Viksit Bharat (Developed India) by 2047. These reforms will likely include market reforms, a push for free trade agreements, an emphasis on digital infrastructure and energy transition, and building economic resilience to absorb global financial shocks.
“On the foreign policy front, the BJP emphasizes its pursuit of UNSC membership, which ultimately requires reforming the United Nations. Reforming the UNSC will be a significant challenge, particularly because China, a P5 member, is clearly not ready for India. However, the BJP will seek to make the best use of Quad-like ‘minilateral’ groupings. India will not wait indefinitely for UNSC reform,” said Gupta.
The China challenge remains substantial, with the PLA continuing to claim Indian territories. The BJP will focus on upgrading India’s defense capabilities and enhancing infrastructure along the India-China border.
“Ties with the United States have strengthened under Modi’s leadership. India finds a welcoming space in the United States. Following recent cooperation in the trade and tech sectors, bilateral cooperation is expected to grow further,” according to Gupta.
Modi will continue to maintain traditional ties with Russia despite the growing bond between Moscow and Beijing and mounting pressure over the Ukraine issue.
India has developed a thick skin on the Ukraine issue. While advocating for a peaceful resolution of the war, it also focuses on its national interests, including buying oil and defense equipment.
According to Asia Society Policy Institute experts, India will seek a leadership role in the Global South and present itself as a strong voice for Global South countries. The G20 Summit in Delhi in 2023 provided momentum for Indian foreign policy, which Modi 3.0 will certainly aim to continue.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden congratulated PM Modi after the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) bagged 292 seats in the Lok Sabha polls to emerge victorious, ensuring a third term in office for PM Modi.
In a post on X, the US President wrote: "Congratulations to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the National Democratic Alliance on their victory, and the nearly 650 million voters in this historic election.
"The friendship between our nations is only growing as we unlock a shared future of unlimited potential."
Earlier, US Department of State Spokesperson Matthew Miller said: "I expect a continued close partnership between the United States and India. There is a great partnership both at the government level, at the – and at the people-to-people level, and I fully expect that to continue."
Russian President Vladimir Putin, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, French President Emmanuel Macron, among other world leaders, also wished PM Modi.
