New Delhi: The improvement in India's economic growth after the slowdown in the July-September quarter is visible as movement indicators like fuel consumption, vehicles tolled and air traffic have strengthened, Jefferies said in a note.
The Jefferies economy tracker composite indicator shows growth pick-up sustaining in November with the indicator up 6.4 per cent year-on-year, the second fastest growth pace in 13 months.
"The festive season created month-on-month volatility due to Diwali timings," it said.
The combined October-November activity growth at 6.5 per cent is a "substantial improvement" over recent months, with growth fastest in five quarters, the Jeffries report states. “We believe that the revival in government capex and liquidity rise on relaxed RBI policies should improve GDP growth in the quarters ahead," the brokerage said.
Broad-based indicators mostly improved. During November, a significant improvement was seen in diesel consumption which saw the highest jump in 13 months, on a year-on-year basis, the report stated.
“Monetary tightening should be behind us," analysts at Jefferies said in the note. The RBI's stance on liquidity also reflected well in overnight liquidity being in surplus for the past three months. We believe monetary conditions will continue to ease in early 2025," Jeffries said.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had also stated in Parliament on Tuesday that the lower-than-expected GDP growth in the second quarter of the current financial year is a "temporary blip" and growth would pick up in the coming months.
The finance minister pointed out that India has experienced steady and sustained growth, with an average GDP growth rate of 8.3 per cent over the past three years and continues to be the fastest-growing major economy.
“At 5.4 per cent, the Q2 growth rate is slower than expected. Q2 of this financial year has been a challenging quarter for India and most other economies of the world,” she said.
Meanwhile, the main macro drivers remain healthy and India's GDP growth is likely to move closer to the trend growth of 6.5-7 per cent this fiscal, a Crisil Insight report has said.
Trend GDP growth is the average sustainable rate of economic growth over time. Private consumption growth in the country has fared better than last year in the first half of the current fiscal (FY25).
