What unfolds in the Bangladesh elections points nowhere near a revival of the past rule under Sheikh Hasina, nor does it lean into alignment with Pakistan.
By Vipul Tamhane
A landmark shift unfolded across South Asia when the Bangladesh Nationalist Party triumphed in the February 2026 polls. Securing more than 210 parliamentary positions, their success signals a turning point few predicted just months prior. Under Tarique Rahman’s leadership, the party dismantled years of rival influence without fanfare or spectacle. Power now rests beyond the reach of the previously dominant Awami League. This change unsettles long-held assumptions once embraced by policymakers in Islamabad.
Strategic calculations made under Muhammad Yunus’s caretaker rule appear miscalibrated in hindsight. Hopes nurtured in Pakistan about shaping regional dynamics through Dhaka have diminished sharply. Instead of gaining leverage near India’s eastern frontier, new realities constrain those aims. Geopolitical bets placed on continuity have yielded unexpected outcomes. Momentum now shifts toward uncertainty, not control. Few anticipated such a reversal emerging so clearly at the ballot box. Yet there it stands, altered alignments born from votes, not force.
The Yunus interregnum: Pakistan's fleeting opportunity
After Sheikh Hasina left for India in August 2024, Pakistan acted without delay. High-ranking ISI and army personnel were seen arriving in Dhaka soon afterward, according to classified sources. Their purpose became clear through patterns of engagement, not declarations. From Islamabad’s view, positioning influence in Bangladesh offered access to a critical geographic pressure point. That location, ‘Siliguri’ is barely 21 kilometers wide at its narrowest, linking northeast India to the rest of the country. Shifting dynamics there could alter regional stability.
Quiet coordination replaced public statements. Intentions emerged through movement, timing, and placement. Security arrangements took shape beneath diplomatic appearances. Geopolitical weight now rests on terrain long overlooked. Decisions made in private meetings began echoing across borders. Influence travels faster when it moves unseen. The east becomes more fragile with each quiet agreement. Distance means little when proximity is leveraged correctly. A corridor so slender draws attention during any regional shift. What happens next depends less on words than on silent alignment.
At times, Yunus voiced concerns that unsettled officials in New Delhi about safety near the corridor. Rather than dismissing such remarks, Pakistan viewed them as openings, ways to draw on tensions tied to Rohingya displacement. Through these shifts, cooperation with hardline factions inside Bangladesh became more feasible. Slowly, mutual understanding took shape, marking Islamabad’s deepest reach into Dhaka affairs since the early 1970s. From afar, this shift hinted at a broader design: pressing India between pressures from two directions.
Rahman's 'Bangladesh First': A nationalist rebuke
Far from accepting the usual options, Tarique Rahman dismissed any simple split between Delhi and Rawalpindi during his election run. "Not Dilli, not Pindi, Bangladesh first" became his phrase - clear, sharp, built on national priority rather than outside loyalty. While past phases under Yunus leaned toward Islamabad at times, Rahman chose another path: one where choices depend less on old alliances. Sovereignty guides decisions now, not inherited leanings. Balance matters more when external pressures grow quiet but persistent. What defines this stance is independence shaped by circumstance, not slogans borrowed elsewhere. The result? A direction rooted in local needs, not distant expectations.
Notably, Rahman openly challenged Jamaat-e-Islami, long seen as Pakistan’s political instrument in Bangladesh for backing Islamabad in the 1971 independence conflict, dismissing their pledges as untrue. Diverging from this group, which won just 61 parliamentary positions against BNP’s 181, signals a deeper break from Islamabad’s established method of regional engagement.
Jamaat’s loss at the polls, even after reportedly distributing cash incentives equivalent to 15,000 taka per individual, suggests citizens turned away from ideologies tied to Pakistani interests.
No return to the Hasina status quo
Though ties flourished under Sheikh Hasina, assuming identical warmth will return with Rahman is impractical. Memories of the BNP’s past alignment with Jamaat, i.e., dating back to 2001-2006, linger uneasily in New Delhi’s view. Still, dialogue shaped by ‘equal footing’ and ‘shared regard,’ recently mentioned by Rahman’s team, offers a different kind of foundation: less emotional than before, yet still functional. From such terms, some stability might emerge.
The attendance of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar at the funeral of ex-Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, carrying a private message from PM Narendra Modi, signals New Delhi’s measured stance toward Bangladesh’s evolving political scene. Constructive dialogue persists on both ends, hinting at continuity in bilateral dynamics even amid shifts in power balance. Although the BNP’s electoral platform questioned incidents along the frontier and alleged forced entries; it still affirmed intent to strengthen regional partnerships for mutual progress, an opening quietly acknowledged in diplomatic circles. As positions adjust, room remains for steady interaction without sharp decline.
Strategic implications for India's Eastern security
Vital yet exposed, the Siliguri Corridor continues to pose a critical vulnerability for India in the northeastern region. At that time, under Yunus, certain statements surfaced; statements that pointed toward disrupting this narrow stretch, raising alarms in New Delhi over possible joint maneuvers by unfriendly powers. With Rahman at the helm, pursuing national priorities without firm alignment, space opens up for India to advance its objectives via dialogue instead of facing a Bangladesh working closely with Pakistan against shared interests.
A fresh meeting of SAARC leaders, should BNP take charge, might open space for joint talks on shared issues, i.e., movement across borders, frontier oversight, and mutual efforts against extremism. Even though demands to return Sheikh Hasina may strain ties between nations, New Delhi’s expected decision not to surrender a past national leader at risk of execution could still fit into wider moves toward deeper trade and safety coordination. Despite friction points, room exists for steady engagement when larger goals guide choices.
Pakistan's strategic reversal
Pakistan sees Rahman’s win as undoing what it gained when Yunus was in power. Right after the result, Shehbaz Sharif sent praise; this move hints at deeper unease in Islamabad. Dhaka now leans toward a leader whose appeal rests on national pride, not faith-based alliances. That shift weakens Pakistan’s long-standing pattern of using groups such as Jamaat to extend reach.
Still, Rahman’s visible separation from Pakistan-linked groups throughout the election hints at restrained interest in the security ties Islamabad aimed to strengthen. Rather than reinforcing old alliances, the incoming administration places national autonomy above political congruence, casting doubt on ISI’s efforts to build influence through local intermediaries. India’s regional posture gains indirect relief, as prospects of Dhaka being leveraged to open a second strategic front fade under current priorities.
Conclusion: A new equilibrium
What unfolds in Bangladesh’s polls points nowhere near a revival of the past rule under Sheikh Hasina, nor does it lean into alignment with Pakistan. Rather, it suggests an assertive course shaped by self-determined goals and measured foreign policy moves. From New Delhi’s view, recalibration becomes necessary, where the economic ties and mutual stability concerns still hold weight. In Islamabad, frustration grows; long-held strategies find resistance in a nation whose identity hardened during wartime upheaval decades ago, an enduring force against external influence in regional affairs.
A quiet winner could emerge, not among candidates but in the form of national self-determination; this shift supports balance across South Asia more effectively than interventions by foreign actors aiming to leverage Bangladesh for separate agendas.
.jpg)
(Vipul Tamhane is a counter-terrorism expert and governance consultant)
The views expressed are not necessarily those of The South Asian Times.
