After a gruelling month-long election across four states and one union territory, several exit polls have predicted a thumping victory for the BJP in Assam and given an edge to the party over CM Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal.
In the south, exit polls have projected a return of the DMK in Tamil Nadu and a comeback by the Congress-led UDF in Kerala after 10 years. Exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially when diverse populations, castes, and communities are at play.
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Predictions for West Bengal by Janmat exit poll. (Infographic courtesy: X@Janmatpolls)
The biggest suspense, however, remains West Bengal - a state that the BJP billed as a make-or-break battle, calling it the party's final frontier. Since 2014, the BJP has been attempting to breach Mamata's fortress. Four exit polls predict the BJP might be able to do this year, giving it anywhere between 146-175 seats.
Two pollsters have projected a thumping victory for the fourth consecutive time for the TMC. While People's Pulse has predicted 177-187 seats, Janmat Polls forecast 195-205 seats for the party, which has been in power for 15 years.
The BJP's rise in the state has been rapid. In 2016, the party had only three assembly seats. Within five years, it jumped to 77 of the 294 seats. The BJP secured 38.1% of the votes in the 2021 polls, emerging as the main opposition.
The BJP leaders are counting on the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls. It resulted in the deletion and exclusion of 91 lakh names from the voter list, which the BJP feels would hurt the TMC.
Trinamool junks 2026 predictionTrinamool Congress leaders have rubbished exit polls that predicted a clear edge for the BJP in West Bengal, with Rajya Sabha member Derek O'Brien questioning the credibility of such projections. In a post on X, O'Brien shared a slide citing three exit polls from 2021, which had projected 143-162 seats for the TMC and 115-147 for the BJP. However, the TMC went on to win 215 seats, while the BJP secured 77. EC gets 77 EVM tampering complaints The Election Commission of India was set to decide whether to order re-polling in parts of West Bengal after receiving 77 complaints of alleged EVM tampering during the second phase of polling. The complaints alleged that buttons on electronic voting machines (EVMs) were marked with black tape, adhesive substances, ink, and even perfume. The complaints came from the Falta, Magrahat, Diamond Harbour, and Budge Budge constituencies. |
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Predictions for Assam by P-MARQ exit poll. (Infographic courtesy: X@pmarqindia)
In neighboring Assam, the pollsters, however, were unanimous in the BJP retaining power for a third straight term. A poll of exit polls forecast 88 seats for the Himanta Sarma-led BJP in the 126-member assembly. The Congress, which put up a spirited campaign under its new state chief, Gaurav Gogoi, is projected to get around 27 seats.
If the numbers hold on the result day on May 4, Himanta Sarma, who has campaigned on welfare outreach and governance plank, will return for a second consecutive term. 'Jati, mati, bheti (community, land, home)' has been the rallying cry of the BJP, while the Congress has sought to tap into anti-incumbency to unseat the BJP.
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Predictions for Tamil Nadu by Axis My India exit poll. (Infographic courtesy: X@AxisMyIndia)
Exit polls HAVE projected a win for CM M K Stalin's DMK, with 130 of the state's 234 seats. The AIADMK, which formed a broad coalition with the NDA and other factions, is likely to get 65 seats.
For both parties, the projected numbers are a sharp drop from the 2021 polls. In 2021, the DMK-led front won 159 seats, with the DMK alone taking 133, while the AIADMK alliance finished with 75 seats.
However, Axis My India predicted that actor-turned-politician Vijay and his Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) could pip both Dravidian majors and end up as the single-largest party – even get a majority – in what could be Tamil Nadu’s first genuinely three-cornered contest in a generation, with the complete collapse of AIADMK. The poll has predicted 98–120 seats for Vijay.
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Predictions for Kerala by Axis My India exit poll. (Photo courtesy: X@AxisMyIndia)
Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, grappling with a decade's worth of anti-incumbency, is likely to make way for the Congress-led UDF, as per a majority of exit polls. A poll of polls has projected 77 seats for the UDF, while giving 55 to the Left Front.
For the Congress, it will be a shot in the arm after a spate of losses in Bihar, Delhi, Maharashtra and Haryana. The UDF not only swept the 2024 Lok Sabha in the state, but the recent local body polls as well.
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In Puducherry, all exit polls predicted that the National Democratic Alliance was set for victory.
