A new study by Cato Institute’s David J Bier finds that while illegal crossings have declined, legal immigration, particularly high-skilled routes like H-1B visas, has dropped far more sharply. “As expected, President Donald Trump has reduced illegal entries, but his administration has reduced legal entries far more,” Bier said.
Bier’s analysis estimates that reductions in legal entries are roughly 2.5 times larger than the fall in illegal crossings. He noted that illegal immigration had already been declining before Trump took office, with much of the drop occurring earlier, and said the current administration has largely continued that trend.
By contrast, legal immigration has reversed sharply. “The cut to legal entries was 2.5 times as large,” Bier said, adding that nearly three-quarters of the total drop in immigration now comes from legal pathways.
Among the most affected routes are H-1B visas, widely used by high-skilled foreign workers — particularly in technology, engineering, and healthcare, including many from India.
Bier estimates that H-1B visa issuances have fallen by about 25 per cent, partly due to a policy change that imposes a $100,000 fee on companies petitioning for workers from outside the United States.
The tightening of legal immigration routes extends beyond skilled workers. International student visas fell by about 40 per cent during peak periods following suspensions, enforcement actions and country-specific bans.
Family-based immigration has also declined sharply. Visas for spouses and fiancés of US citizens dropped by roughly 65 per cent, while broader immigrant visa categories contracted under sweeping country bans and administrative slowdowns.
