India’s demographic dividend is nearing its peak. The next decade is crucial for investing in health, care systems, and women’s participation in the workforce.
By Poulami Sanyal & Pompy Konwar
On World Population Day, the question for India is no longer how many people it has, but whether its people can stay healthy, work productively, and be cared for in old age, and equally, whether the work of raising families is shared between parents and supported by the state.
From numbers to capability
For half a century, population policy treated size as the problem. Success meant fewer people. That number has now settled. NFHS6 puts India’s total fertility rate at 2.0 for 202324, and the latest Sample Registration System figure is 1.9, both at or below the replacement level of 2.1.
Some states have responded with cash incentives and fertility schemes to encourage larger families. The worry is real: fertility below replacement eventually means fewer workers and more dependents. But paying or nudging people toward bigger families misreads what India needs over the next 40 years.
The task is to make the population already here healthier, better skilled, and more fully employed. A country of 1.4 billion that keeps half its potential workers at home, tolerates widespread undernutrition, and fails to equip its young people with the skills needed for productive employment will be at a disadvantage compared with a smaller country that fully develops and utilizes its human capital.
The clock is ticking
According to the Reserve Bank of India’s State Finances: A Study of Budgets of 2025-26 (January 2026), the share of India’s working-age population (15-59 years) is projected at 64.8% in 2026, rising slightly to 65.1% in 2031, before declining to 64.9% by 2036.
These projections suggest that India’s demographic dividend is nearing its peak, making the coming decade critical for strengthening the health, skills, and productivity of the workforce.
At the same time, declining fertility and a shrinking child population create an opportunity to invest more deeply in maternal and child health, nutrition, immunization, and early childhood development, ensuring every child enters adulthood healthy, skilled, and productive.
Labor force participation is the hinge. Male labor force participation is 79.1%; female participation is 40.0%, much of it in distress work or self-employment in agriculture. Of women outside the workforce, 44.4% cite domestic duties and childcare.
The government itself values women’s unpaid care at 3.1% of GDP, yet almost none of it is counted or paid. Policies that encourage larger families without addressing childcare risk pushing more women out of paid work, precisely when the economy needs them most.
Ageing ahead
By 2050, India’s population aged 60+ will double from 150 million to 347 million, nearly 21% of the total. The elderly will outnumber children by 2046. The old-age dependency ratio will climb from 16 per 100 workers in 2021 to 30 by 2050, cutting the support base from six workers per older person to three.
More than 40% of older Indians are in the poorest wealth quintile, and around 19% have no income at all. Older women, who live longer and are more often widowed and without assets, will carry the heaviest share. The best defense against ageing is to use today’s demographic window wisely. India must build wealth and stronger social systems while its workforce is still large, or risk growing old before it grows prosperous.
Lessons abroad
Japan is the world’s oldest society, with nearly 30% aged 65+. Its long-term care insurance, introduced in 2000, requires contributions from everyone over 40 and provides universal coverage for older adults.
Yet Japan still faces rising costs and care worker shortages-proof that institutions must be built before ageing accelerates. Sweden and Denmark show the other half of the equation.
Sustained public investment in childcare, parental leave, and shared caregiving has pushed female employment among prime-age women above 80%, while keeping fertility higher than much of Europe.
The lesson for India: preparing for ageing means investing not only in elder care, but also in policies that keep women in the workforce while raising families.
India’s priorities
India’s demographic future demands urgent investment in the infrastructure of care. Three systems must be built in this decade.
First, shared childcare: expanding affordable crèches and daycare, through Anganwadis, so the costs of raising a family do not fall on women alone.
Second, eldercare: designing and financing the institutions that will carry 347 million older people by 2050, while the working-age base is still wide enough to sustain them.
Third, maternal and child health: tackling anaemia and stunting, and strengthening maternal and newborn care, because investing early builds a stronger, more productive workforce.
Together, these priorities form the backbone of a healthier, more resilient India.
The policy India should be writing
World Population Day began as a way to draw attention to numbers. For India, the number is no longer the issue. What matters is whether its people are healthy, productive, and cared for, and whether care is shared within households and supported by the state.
A population becomes an asset when it is capable and supported. Building that capacity, within this narrow window, is the population policy India should be writing.
Dr Poulami Sanyal is a Fellow and Pompy Konwar is a Senior Research Associate at Pahlé India Foundation (PIF)
The views expressed are not necessarily those of The South Asian Times
